tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7863581843088370950.post1658244933668071527..comments2024-03-09T02:19:45.780-05:00Comments on BlawgConomics: Is Albert Pujols Worth $254 Million? Part IIJosh Sturtevanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00080334341099916281noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7863581843088370950.post-68545672366142731262012-01-20T11:16:21.923-05:002012-01-20T11:16:21.923-05:00Thanks for the comment.
As we noted above, there...Thanks for the comment. <br /><br />As we noted above, there are certainly risks in this deal. However, that is the nature of capitalism, and Mr. Moreno certainly weighed those factors. That said I do have a few thoughts on the risks you mention...<br /><br />First, even if the TV deal has contingencies (which we may never know for sure) I would suggest that the advertised $3 billion number won't decline so much as to leave the Angels floundering for cash. <br /><br />Second, whether Pujols has a huge impact on wins or not, the Angels have built a fairly strong team which seems likely to make a few playoff appearances, with him or in spite of him, in the medium term.<br /><br />Now, one thing I didn't address in the article (maybe I should have...) is decline. In other words, it is almost certain that Pujols will begin to decline at some point during the contract. Whether he does so gracefully after winning some games for the team (and fulfilling potential TV contingencies, selling tickets, jerseys, etc.) or brings the team down with him (and his salary) in, say, year 2 or 3 is a huge risk of this very long deal. <br /><br />However, if Pujols has 4 or 5 years of production in line with his career numbers, and if the Angels make it through a few rounds of the playoffs during that time, it seems very likely to me that they will make their money back, even if this is followed by a few years of paying over the odds for declining production during an extended farewell tour. <br /><br />However, that is what it was going to take to get this particular deal done, and as noted above, was certainly considered during negotiations. <br /><br />JSJosh Sturtevanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00080334341099916281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7863581843088370950.post-70815156942225481652012-01-20T11:00:06.928-05:002012-01-20T11:00:06.928-05:00But will that still make economic sense if the Ang...But will that still make economic sense if the Angels don't win? Mega contracts, such as the one for TV rights, are often worth much less than the eye-popping amount publicized unless certain benchmarks are met. Those benchmarks are usually not disclosed publicly, but I think we can assume the Angels need to sell out at least a certain number of games and make a certain number of appearances in the playoffs to realize all the money on that deal.<br /><br />How many wins can Pujols reasonably add? And if they don't win, will jerseys and tickets continue to sell?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com