tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7863581843088370950.post7725163808556953465..comments2024-03-09T02:19:45.780-05:00Comments on BlawgConomics: Checking In On Intrade - Is Romney Undervalued?Josh Sturtevanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00080334341099916281noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7863581843088370950.post-77751580685590240252012-11-07T11:42:41.338-05:002012-11-07T11:42:41.338-05:00It's November 7th. I would say Anonymous was f...It's November 7th. I would say Anonymous was fully vindicated by the events of Election Day. <br /><br />Bravo!Josh Sturtevanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00080334341099916281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7863581843088370950.post-24414308683922165402012-10-29T17:42:07.071-04:002012-10-29T17:42:07.071-04:00Thanks for stopping by, and thanks for the comment...Thanks for stopping by, and thanks for the comments. <br /><br />The post itself was informational up to the point that I started with the 'baseless' analysis...I went about half serious/half tongue in cheek after that. That said, you make some interesting points, and I would say that if Romney supporters are voting with their hearts on Intrade as well, he is in a lot more trouble than some polls indicate... <br /><br />I also think the Obama campaign has some fires to put out as well, and things like be a little tougher for him than you have indicated. However if you really believe they aren't, and you are right about Obama's odds, you are correct in thinking that that a bet is a good idea. <br /><br />Either Obama wins and you gain the double win of the bet and your candidate winning, or else if you are a Romney supporter, you have the pocket money with which to drown your sorrows as discussed in the original post. Not a bad outcome for a few bucks down...<br /><br />JSJosh Sturtevanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00080334341099916281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7863581843088370950.post-68093453730792444772012-10-29T16:35:05.074-04:002012-10-29T16:35:05.074-04:00Just some clarification as it regards my last para...Just some clarification as it regards my last paragraph (above): "He", as in the guy who's "winning the popular vote", is President Obama, not Romney. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7863581843088370950.post-21739173243020144972012-10-29T16:30:46.203-04:002012-10-29T16:30:46.203-04:00"Voting from the heart" is something bot..."Voting from the heart" is something both parties do regularly. Why would you imagine this practice is the sole domain of Obama supporters? And how would you know whether or not any particular voter is voting "from the heart" or "from the head", much less a bunch of them on a business site like Intrade? <br /><br />Your theory that more Obama apologists use Intrade has no real basis. Also, you'd have to also explain why virtually all other trade sites show about a 2:1 confidence in Obama winning the election, as well. Is it all just a conspiracy?<br /><br />It's not hard to imagine there are plenty of young and old conservatives that are business minded and use the web, but haven't bet on Romney because Romney will have to put out multiple fires in swing states to tie with the incumbent, never mind winning, and the incumbent almost always wins presidential re-election. <br /><br />Also, looking at the math, Romney is significantly behind in points for winning the electoral college. Plus he's winning the popular vote. Finally, most national polls aren't taking into account the exclusion of cell phone users - a population of likely voters that are overwhelmingly supporters of President Obama. Wait ... this makes me want to put money on President Obama ;)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com