Some economists believe that the worst of the current recession may be behind us as recent job numbers came out rosier than expected. Though jobs were not added to the economy, less jobs than expected were lost, and many of the economists polled expect a positive increase when the next round of data is released. These positive projections are being made based on a few factors, including the decline in inventories as long-term demand catches up to supply, and increasing corporate profits. Both of these serve as precursors to a slowdown in layoffs and eventually, new hiring.
There are clearly positive signs in the air, and they should be viewed even more favorably than this month's slight decline in the unemployment rate if projections come to fruition. This is because job numbers are more concrete than the unemployment rate, which can be misleading due to the impact of frustrated workers on data. The old mantra that a recession is when your neighbor loses his job, and that a depression is when you lose yours has been repeated too often over the past few years. If the tide is indeed turning, it would be a welcome change to put some of these cliches on the shelf for a while and look ahead to positive developments as we enter a new year.
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