The Domino Effect of the Brown Gaffe

Americans are certainly used to politicians making mistakes. Indeed, regardless of political leanings, one thing all Americans seem to be able to agree on is that whoever is in office could be making less of them. The United States has also, particularly with the advent of 24 hour news channels and the ability of individuals with no more than a phone and an internet connection to share intimate moments with the world, become accustomed to the odd candidate trip-up on the campaign trail. Most often this includes a barely audible four-letter word mumbled to an aide almost out of earshot (then there's Joe Biden...).

However it has been some time since a pol in the States has made a game-changing campaign trail slip-up on the order of the comment British incumbent PM and Labour Party Leader Gordon Brown made this week. With the May 6th general election just about a week away, Brown had the misfortune to be recorded calling a woman 'bigoted' as he sped away from a campaign stop and after she asked him a question about immigration.

This has been a particularly interesting election cycle in England. Until recently, and after over a decade playing second fiddle, the Tories under David Cameron seemed poised to easily regain power. However, the belated introduction of televised debates to the mix has led to the resurrection of the Liberal Democrat Party through the strong showing of leader Nick Clegg. Despite the rise of the Lib Dems, however, many analysts predicted that either Labour or the Tories would still be able to get a majority. This is because, despite favorable polling for the Lib Dems, it was felt that many voters would stick with Labour or Conservative candidates to ensure that their vote counted in a majoritarian Parliament.

Brown's mistake may, however, have changed the entire calculus of the race. With poor results in the debates and now with a shock gaffe to his name, Brown and his Labour party are running third. Therefore, voters will be less likely to vote Labour just to make sure that their voice is heard, and may be more willing to go with the Lib Dems. Final result? Likely a coalition government between one of the two leading parties with the Liberal Democrats as a junior member. A coalition with the Labour Party seems a more natural fit ideologically. However, the desire of the Liberal Democrats to share a bit of the spotlight after several generations in the background should not be underestimated and could lead to an interesting (and probably tenuous) Tory/Lib Dem marriage.

UPDATE: Cameron wins third debate, Clegg maintains position. Gordon Brown's tenure as Prime Minister would appear to be all but over as David Cameron, long though to be next in line for PM, won today's third and final pre-election debate. This should solidify his frontrunner status for undecided voters. Additionally, the likelihood of a coalition government or possibly a hung parliament increased as Nick Clegg, head of the traditionally outsider Liberal Democrats seemed to solidify his position behind the Tory.