Op-Ed: Predicting the Electoral Impact of Immigration Reform

Editor's Note: Contributor Patrick DeCourcy is back with another thought-provoking position piece. In this post, Pat explores one theory of the impact on the electorate that a potential immigration reform bill centered on illegal alien amnesty would have, and explores its significance against the backdrop of the recent healthcare bill. A few comments before we move on to Pat's post....

First, some of the numbers below might be a bit overstated. Though Hispanic voters predominantly go with the Democrats, voter turnout in this demographic is notably low (even in a country of notably low turnout). Additionally, it is likely true that turnout numbers would be even lower among first generation immigrants. Nonetheless, the analysis itself is sound, and it is undoubtedly correct that Democrats would be the ones to benefit from amnesty, possibly in a game-breaking manner. Secondly, though Pat's position is clear in his analysis of immigration reform and its impact on the electoral process, he does not discuss underlying arguments for or against amnesty (aside from, of course its negative impact on the GOP). This is an incredibly difficult topic. Our essentially open-border policy is rare in the developed world, with controls on entrance approaching laughable status in some cases.  However, there are interesting and valid sides in this debate.

For one, though it is true that unprotected borders have resulted in increased drug trafficking and crime, it is also true that migrant workers, many of them illegal, form the backbone of many industries in many parts of the country. Additionally, though in some cases, illegal workers have a negative impact on the job market for citizens, making them legal would result in increased tax revenues and a balancing of the negative drain that their current access to entitlements results in. In light of these conflicts and others, there are clearly difficult issues to work through in immigration reform. For this reason alone, it is one of many issues I am glad  we can discuss on the site without an accompanying responsibility to actually resolve.

Obamacare was recently passed and there is very little potential that it will be repealed. Entitlement laws never get repealed, they only get expanded, typically leading to tax increases. See Social Security, Medicare, SCHIP, and Medicaid for examples. The only entitlement program in recent memory that was scaled back was welfare during the Clinton years, and even that was a marginal reduction. So, despite hoping that Republicans and Conservatives argue for its repeal, it is not really a plausible scenario. Even the rosiest 2010 midterm election projections have the GOP taking the House and perhaps the Senate, but no one has projected a veto-proof majority in the Senate. With Obama as President, any attempt to repeal Obamacare will be vetoed and there is nothing the GOP will be able to do about it. For repeal to even be a possibility, the Republicans will have to have majorities in both houses and win the White House from Obama. The earliest this can happen is 2013, which is a damn shame.

Despite all this, most hard working Americans and taxpayers are outraged by Obamacare. I predict they will turn out in large numbers at the polls this November. However, I am sad to admit this might not matter. Democrats have proven that they will do ANYTHING to maintain their power and expand government. Backroom deals? No problem. Bribes? Everyone does it. Secret agreements with corporations? Oh well. Fund organizations like ACORN who have been caught registering thousands of fraudulent voters? Sounds good to me.

And this brings us to the next issue Congress will be taking up: Amnesty for illegal immigrants, or the less descriptive and euphemistic name - Comprehensive Immigration Reform. If enacted this year, it could create tons of votes for progressives and socialists; in other words, the Democratic party. Most political observers claim Hispanic immigrants break 8 or 9 to 10 for Democrats. Lets say we start with the common estimate of 20 million illegal aliens. Assuming 90-95% are Hispanic, that yields about 18-19 million Hispanic illegal aliens. Out of that 18-19 million who obtain citizenship and register as Democrats, even the low-ball prediction of 8/10 would lead to 14-15 million new Democratic voters. And that's ballgame for the Republican Party in this country as this would counter any gains the GOP makes with independent voters. Amnesty will end the war between the right and left; the left will have won.


This is why this amnesty bill MUST be defeated, and quickly. Unfortunately, there is a RINO (Republican in name only), Sen Lindsey Graham (affectionally known as Lindsey Grahamnesty in Mexico), who is actually co-sponsoring this bill in the Senate with Sen. Chuck Schumer. Graham and Juan McCain have been vocal advocates for amnesty for years now and don't seem to care it will be their party's undoing. If they continue with this push, they should be kicked out of the party by the RNC. Recently, Democrats kicked Joe Lieberman out of the party simply because he supported the Iraq war, so the precedent is there. Any Republican supporting amnesty should also be purged from the party. There is NOTHING about amnesty that helps the GOP - it will destroy the electoral chances of the party in 2010 and in the future. Think about it, if Obama has 14-15 new voters on top of his sycophantic 2008 coalition of voters, how can anyone beat him????

Obamacare has passed and it will be a fiscal disaster. Though there is still a loyal opposition, this will NOT be the case if amnesty passes. Amnesty being enacted will not simply be a battle lost, rather it will be the end of the war and the Marxists will have a permanent ruling majority for the foreseeable future.