The Arab Summer: US Policy in the Face of Middle East Turmoil

The leadership of the US has some difficult decisions to make regarding the current turmoil in the Middle East. On the one hand, and in the name of maintaining a status quo of stability in the region, policy has long dictated supporting rulers who have a less than a stellar track record when it comes to supporting democracy and the will of the people. On the other, certainly emphasized under Bush, but maintained as an ideal for some time before that and since, is the idea that democratic forces should guide the political, legal and economic development of nations, both in the Middle East and elsewhere.

These notions are not as incongruous as they may on the surface seem, at least not when you add in another factor; though the US verbally promotes democracy it is often the case that the 'voice of the people' in foreign nations and Arab states in particular does not exactly mesh with the policy goals of the US. Therefore, a more accurate depiction of US policy might be, 'We want democracy abroad, but the kind of democracy we have. And, if not that, then rulers (even if they happen to be strongmen) who promote our interests are a second best.'

This pragmatic approach has often worked for policymakers in the States as lip service could be paid to the ideal while at the same time facilitating things like oil deals and military operations. However, this way of doing business and politics may be coming to a head presently as the Egyptian leadership, long-time allies, are facing a very real threat of being replaced due to what appears to be very popular dissent. Additionally, those who would most likely fill the vacuum have been very critical of the US, creating a conundrum where American leaders have toed the 'we support democracy/we support our ally' line with varying degrees of success over the past week.

In short, the will of the people is on the verge of being heard in a very democratic way, just not the brand of democracy the US favors, creating a very uncomfortable and uncertain situation for American policymakers. This leads very naturally to the question, what do we do next? For more on this fascinating topic from the perspective of a Middle East insider, visit Anthony Elghossain's blog Page Lebanon and the posting The “Arab Summer?” A Second Season of Dissent Sweeps across the Middle East. We will also be re-posting Anthony's article on Blawgconomics shortly.

UPDATES: One of the reasons America has promoted strong men in the past, even in the face of pro-democracy rhetoric, has been the desire for stability. Now, as feared, the democratically-charged turmoil in the Middle East has led to instability and fears of war. In a series of updates to yesterday's story, here are some reactions from Israel; here are threats of war from one of the frontrunners to gain leadership in Egypt; and here is an interesting, if brief, reaction from the head of the IMF. Finally, the response from Iran can be found here.