If it were not before, it almost a certainty now; the Supreme Court is going to be the branch of government which ultimately decides the fate of 'Obamacare.' The legislation of course already has a rocky history. Despite intense debate, it was pushed through a friendly Congress last year. However, the law provoked the ire of many citizens and the governors of their states, fed fuel to the Tea Party's fire and arguably lost Democrats the House.
Much of the negativity around the bill came to a head with a number of lawsuits filed in District Courts around the country after its passage. Though detractors alway hoped that the courts might provide a remedy to their grievances, it was uncertain what the result of such a course of action would be. However, now that some of these lawsuits are coming to their conclusion, with results ranging from rejections of cases to declarations of the unconstitutionality of the bill, it is more clear than ever that The Nine will be required to settle the main points.
In the latest and most dramatic ruling from a court, Florida District Judge Roger Vinson declared that the bill's requirement that every American either have or purchase insurance unconstitutional. This type of declaration, that one piece of the bill is illegal, has already been made in at least one other case in District court in Virginia. However, Vinson went substantially further by additionally declaring that the illegality of such a critical piece of the monster legislation invalidated the law in its entirety. Though the ruling does not foreclose the government from making tweaks to the law, as such a major pillar of the legislation, and arguably as the only way aside from further government intervention to ensure that all Americans get coverage, the political reality is that the Obama Administration is highly unlikely to adhere to the ruling. This, of course, means that appeals are coming.
Because the executive branch is unlikely to budge, and since Republicans are unable to do anything other than offer symbolic campaign-trail-promised-votes to overturn the law in Congress, it therefore appears that the judiciary is going to be the ultimate arbiter of this debate. If the current pattern of rulings in healthcare cases (Republican judges overturning sections, Democratic appointees holding them to be valid) holds, it would appear that the appeals process could lead to great variance in decisions, and therefore potential Circuit splits. Since that is just the situation the Supreme Court is meant to address, it is very likely that the Roberts Court will have a healthcare case before it sometime this year. Based on the leanings of the current justices, it is more likely than not that a high court appeal might result in the law being overturned.
What then? Well, it is nothing if uncertain. However, with guidance from the courts and bargaining power for Republicans, one theory is that a lot of the types of things conservatives were looking for, such as medical malpractice reform, would be on the table, while some of Obama's most desired initiatives, including mandated coverage, would be pulled. Of course much of this is speculation. And it is possible that the Supreme Court will tread lightly in this situation; it often keeps away from, or at least makes narrow decisions in, situations of such a politically charged nature. However, one thing is for sure; as the Healthcare reform debate appears to be far from settled, it is very likely that the rules that guide the healthcare system of the nation in five or ten years time will look substantially different from the 'Obamacare' package passed last year.
No comments:
Post a Comment