Semi-Regular Polling Post

I had a little fun earlier this morning at Twitter's expense after its announcement that it had created a candidate favorability rating based on what people were writing on its platform. The fact of the matter is, the TwIndex may have just as much value as any other poll, down to and including the lowest value on the scale. In other words, polls are not foolproof; it is impossible to know what is going to happen in an election until it happens, and sometimes not even until some time after (see Bush v. Gore). Polls have innumerable problems based on methodology and human error and it is telling that none of the major polls ever seem to be in conformity. 

That said, polling has an established roll in the political world, and it would seem silly for election watchers and would-be politicos to ignore them, if for no other reason than everyone else is doing it. With that in mind, I want to introduce the first of what I think will be at least a half a dozen posts on poll results in the run-up to the election this fall. Since Scott Rasmussen's polls are updated daily*, his site is as good a place as any to start. Rasmussen currently has Romney up 47% to 43%, a statistical close call with a listed margin of error of =/- 3%.

*His polls also happen to be pretty good; he has received endorsements from the pollsters for both Presidents Clinton and Carter for his methods and integrity and he boasts a solid track record in the past few big elections.

No comments:

Post a Comment