Semi-Regular Polling Post

I recently ran a post where I linked to presidential polling data at www.rasmussenreports.com showing that Mitt Romney had a slight edge over President Obama in what was statistically just about a dead heat. While numbers on Rasmussen's site are showing that the incumbent has regained a slight edge, I recently came across some very interesting academic research which suggests that Romney might nonetheless win the presidency. From the University of Colorado's website:

"A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.

 

The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.

 

“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.

 

According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties."

 

While history is no guarantee of future results, such headlines are likely being welcomed by the Romney camp ahead of the convention this week.