Semi-Regular Polling Post

For today's semi-regular polling post, we go back to the University of Colorado and Professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry. The two have recently updated their state-level presidential prediction model which still shows Mitt Romney winning the election next month. From a release:

"An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.
According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.
The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.
“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”
While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia."

A lot of pollsters have come around to this position recently, particularly after the Romney victory in the first debate. However, Bickers and Berry have been predicting a Romney presidency since August. Three weeks is as good as an eternity in presidential election terms, particularly with two debates to come. However, if Romney wins, Bickers and Berry can take some pride in their prediction skills.

If they end up correct, their efforts can also provide support for the idea that not all polling is created equal, and that digging a little deeper can often bring more clarity to the situation than what is reported on the network news.

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