This week in Copenhagen, China repeated its oft-stated ultimatum that it would not be bound to a climate agreement that didn't include substantial monetary incentives being provided to it by the US and the EU. Chinese negotiators also declared that pledges by the US to cut emissions by 17% by 2020 were not substantial enough. In addition to the unwillingness of any particular nation to be the first to take the plunge on substantial cuts, typically due to political pressure domestically, the hardball negotiating techniques of the Chinese are the biggest threat to a deal being done in Copenhagen, or anywhere else, for the forseeable future.
It has been noted on this page several times previously that emphasizing economic incentives is the only way that climate-related legislation would be politically feasible, both in the US and to a lesser extent, the EU. However, every other consideration is rendered moot when the language of diplomacy is replaced by the language of ultimatums. There is no way that the US can or will capitulate to Chinese demands.
However, it would be naive to think that this is solely a ploy by the Chinese to gain more concessions on climate issues. More likely, it is an attempt to scuttle an agreement altogether. China is growing, and growing very quickly. It invests substantially in green technology, but does so for economic, not social, purposes. It has a growing middle class who will eventially provide demand for the fruits of its factories. The same middle class will very rapidly approach the same car to citizen ratios of the US, and increased leisure time will increase the desire and ability to travel. The last thing China wants is to be bound to an agreement limiting its ability to make these current visions a future reality. Therefore, for now and the forseeable future, it is very likely that any deal global leaders try to make on climate change that requires the participation of the Chinese will be a deal left unmade.
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