Founded in a dorm room no more than 7 years ago, Facebook's valuation already places it among the largest companies in the world. And it isn't even public yet. For those unfamiliar with the machinations of the market, the valuation of private companies and the venture capital cycle, the inherent incongruities between the statements above might not be readily apparent. Suffice to say, it is not typical for valuations of privately-held companies to be so widely known.
For one thing, many privately-held companies are not well-known by the general public. Of course this is not the case with Facebook. But even well-known private companies are typically difficult to properly value. Their numbers are kept close to the vest and investors (often venture capital/private equity funds) often keep very quiet about company prospects. It is only typically in the run-up to an IPO, during road shows, that the market receives an indication of what management and bankers think an entity is worth.
However, Facebook is not in the midst of a road show right now. Its IPO date is not only to-be-determined, but it is probably not going to arrive until at least next year. So how is it that market commentators are so easily able to quote potential prices for ownership stakes in the company?
4.29.2011
Berkshire Heir Apparent Thrown Firmly Under the Bus
Things seem to be going from bad to worse for the former Berkshire Hathaway executive embroiled in an alleged improper trading scandal. In summary, one of the insiders on the short list to be Warren Buffett's replacement has been accused of trading heavily in a potential investment opportunity before bringing the idea to the Berkshire board, then misleading Mr. Buffett about his stake. While the SEC is merely investigating the situation, David Sokol has resigned in response to the allegations. Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway seems to think that the term 'allegation' is not quite strong enough. From the Reuters article:
'His misleadingly incomplete disclosures to Berkshire Hathaway senior management concerning those purchases violated the duty of candor he owed to the company,' the board said -- noting that an executive's duty of candor was part of the duty of loyalty under Delaware law where Berkshire is incorporated. Berkshire's board also said certain answers Sokol gave to Buffett in response to questions about the nature of his holdings appeared 'intended to deceive.'
'His misleadingly incomplete disclosures to Berkshire Hathaway senior management concerning those purchases violated the duty of candor he owed to the company,' the board said -- noting that an executive's duty of candor was part of the duty of loyalty under Delaware law where Berkshire is incorporated. Berkshire's board also said certain answers Sokol gave to Buffett in response to questions about the nature of his holdings appeared 'intended to deceive.'
Unveiling the Wizards Behind the Curtain
The Fed has always been a fairly secretive organization. Much of what it does is shrouded in mystery, particularly as it is being done. Indeed the mystery surrounding the Fed is so ingrained in market culture that traders and analysts have been trained to be happy just to receive updates of actions sometime after the fact. This mystery is helpful to the Fed as it allows its autonomy to remain intact without too much of a fight. It is also arguably necessary to allow central banks to act in secrecy because transparency can often rob their moves of effectiveness and allow speculators to enter markets with detrimental effect.
However, Ben Bernanke has been slowly changing the way the bank does business. One of the largest changes came recently, as the Chairman gave (frankly shockingly) the first press conference in the history of Fed Chairs. Gregg Easterbrook has more on this at his blog here. Critics have suggested that he didn't say much in the press conference, but 'baby steps' is the cliche that comes to mind in response to such complaints. We would also remind such detractors of the Greenspan years...
However, Ben Bernanke has been slowly changing the way the bank does business. One of the largest changes came recently, as the Chairman gave (frankly shockingly) the first press conference in the history of Fed Chairs. Gregg Easterbrook has more on this at his blog here. Critics have suggested that he didn't say much in the press conference, but 'baby steps' is the cliche that comes to mind in response to such complaints. We would also remind such detractors of the Greenspan years...
4.28.2011
A Random Observation on the BRICs
One of the markers of the digital/social media age has been not only the use of technology to reach people, but the use of technology to figure out what those people are doing and where they are doing it. It shouldn't be any surprise to our readers that websites track what users are viewing, where they are viewing it from and how often they are viewing it.
One great example in action many readers will be familiar with is the inevitable pop-up advertisements they will 'mysteriously' receive for product x, say cheap airfare, directly after running a search for, say, the Washington to New York shuttle. Taking it a step further, one of the reasons a site like Facebook is valued at over $50 billion is the potential ability it will give advertisers to tap directly into the 'likes' and friend connections of users, adding another, richer level of targets for marketing departments.
One great example in action many readers will be familiar with is the inevitable pop-up advertisements they will 'mysteriously' receive for product x, say cheap airfare, directly after running a search for, say, the Washington to New York shuttle. Taking it a step further, one of the reasons a site like Facebook is valued at over $50 billion is the potential ability it will give advertisers to tap directly into the 'likes' and friend connections of users, adding another, richer level of targets for marketing departments.
4.27.2011
North America to Surpass Germany in Annual Solar Installations
A good friend and loyal reader from Germany sent over this link to a recent Bloomberg.com 'Graph of the Day.' The graph cannot, unfortunately, be reproduced here. However the gist of it is that 4,455 megawatts of solar panels will be installed on roofs and fields in the U.S. and Canada in 2012 while 3,500 megawatts will be installed in Germany. This is a decline from 7,450 megawatts last year in the latter. The last time North Americans installed more than Germans was around the time we were all concerned about Y2K computer problems. Bloomberg's analysts point out that subsidies for solar installation are being trimmed in July as the nation is nearing capacity. Meanwhile, they suggest that there is plenty of room for growth in the US and Canadian markets.
Germany might be nearing capacity, but there is probably still some room to grow. Additionally, as new technologies improve efficiency rates, natural turnover to better products should occur over time. However, even if there is some remaining capacity, will growth occur without government subsidies? It is tough to tell, but interestingly the reduction in subsidies this year could be one explanation for the relatively high number of hits we regularly receive for our post on the solar REIT concept in Germany. The idea behind this is that in a subsidy-free or low subsidy operating environment, solar development might still be stimulated if the flexible ownership rules of the real estate world were available to solar owners. More on this topic can be found in English here and in German here.
Thanks to C.S.
Germany might be nearing capacity, but there is probably still some room to grow. Additionally, as new technologies improve efficiency rates, natural turnover to better products should occur over time. However, even if there is some remaining capacity, will growth occur without government subsidies? It is tough to tell, but interestingly the reduction in subsidies this year could be one explanation for the relatively high number of hits we regularly receive for our post on the solar REIT concept in Germany. The idea behind this is that in a subsidy-free or low subsidy operating environment, solar development might still be stimulated if the flexible ownership rules of the real estate world were available to solar owners. More on this topic can be found in English here and in German here.
Thanks to C.S.
4.26.2011
The Value of Unpaid Work
One of the most interesting (at least in our opinion) topics in economics is the question of how to value work that individuals do outside the workplace. It is relatively easy to compare and contrast salaries between two office workers, or baseball players, or firefighters. There are simply two numbers. Of course it may be true that there are discrepencies in hours worked for a similar salary, overtime pay and bonuses between otherwise comparable workers.
However, these variables are all able to be worked out with a little homework. In comparison it is less easy to figure out what work done outside the workplace is worth however. For example, what is the value of cooking and cleaning? How about laundry? Child care? Do you value these services by their market cost? By salary foregone? Aside from obvious gender equality implications, there are numerous family planning and social equality scenarios where more clarity regarding this difficult economic topic could prove helpful.
The OECD recently released 'Society at a Glance 2011' with information on this very topic. Amid this annual report covering 'a wide range of information on social issues – such as demography and family characteristics, employment and unemployment, poverty and inequality, social and health care expenditure, and trust and tolerance,' the organization included a special chapter on unpaid work. Freakonomics has a posting on the report which extrapolated some facts of interest for readers. As they borrowed heavily from the report itself, we hope Messrs. Levitt and Dubner don't mind us doing likewise:
However, these variables are all able to be worked out with a little homework. In comparison it is less easy to figure out what work done outside the workplace is worth however. For example, what is the value of cooking and cleaning? How about laundry? Child care? Do you value these services by their market cost? By salary foregone? Aside from obvious gender equality implications, there are numerous family planning and social equality scenarios where more clarity regarding this difficult economic topic could prove helpful.
The OECD recently released 'Society at a Glance 2011' with information on this very topic. Amid this annual report covering 'a wide range of information on social issues – such as demography and family characteristics, employment and unemployment, poverty and inequality, social and health care expenditure, and trust and tolerance,' the organization included a special chapter on unpaid work. Freakonomics has a posting on the report which extrapolated some facts of interest for readers. As they borrowed heavily from the report itself, we hope Messrs. Levitt and Dubner don't mind us doing likewise:
A Response to 'Fixing the Immigration Problem in Three Steps or Less'
Just about a month ago, in an attempt to provoke thought, we had a little fun with a current hot topic in an article entitled 'Fixing the Immigration Problem in Three Steps or Less.' It seems that we have accomplished our mission and more; that piece has provoked thought as well as one response worthy of its own posting.
Though we disagree with the idea that eliminating illegal labor will have as great an impact on the unemployment rate as our anonymous reader (the increase in wages to the legal minimum will almost certainly mean less overall workers employed, an example from one plant notwithstanding) we do think there are some very interesting points here. Therefore, without further ado, and with no editing (save the addition of links where the reader gave webpage addresses), is a response to our earlier post:
I don't know that everyone can accept #2. I know you were being tongue-in-cheek, but 45-year-old white men are not the only unemployed workers. Legal (immigrant and not), unskilled workers are also competing with illegal, unskilled workers.
A few articles from WSJ (no fan of regulation of labor markets they) make the point better than I can. First, an example of non-immigrant workers fighting for jobs sought by immigrants (legal and illegal) is here.
This quote: "This is the worst job I have ever applied for," sums up the level of desperation out there right now. I think you may be underestimating the number of 45-year-old white males willing to work in jobs now favored by illegals.
Though we disagree with the idea that eliminating illegal labor will have as great an impact on the unemployment rate as our anonymous reader (the increase in wages to the legal minimum will almost certainly mean less overall workers employed, an example from one plant notwithstanding) we do think there are some very interesting points here. Therefore, without further ado, and with no editing (save the addition of links where the reader gave webpage addresses), is a response to our earlier post:
I don't know that everyone can accept #2. I know you were being tongue-in-cheek, but 45-year-old white men are not the only unemployed workers. Legal (immigrant and not), unskilled workers are also competing with illegal, unskilled workers.
A few articles from WSJ (no fan of regulation of labor markets they) make the point better than I can. First, an example of non-immigrant workers fighting for jobs sought by immigrants (legal and illegal) is here.
This quote: "This is the worst job I have ever applied for," sums up the level of desperation out there right now. I think you may be underestimating the number of 45-year-old white males willing to work in jobs now favored by illegals.
4.25.2011
Explaining SCOTUS Opinions 'In Plain English'
Over at SCOTUSblog Lisa McElroy has a very good piece explaining last week's Supreme Court decisions. More relevant to the title of this posting, the article continues with a good, straight-forward explanation of the Court's opinion writing process. This one probably isn't for any clerks in the audience, but for those interested in a simple explanation of the how the Supreme Court functions, Ms. McElroy's article will suit your purposes quite well.
4.23.2011
The Continuing Impact of Insider Trading Prosecutions
We have spent a considerable amount of time writing about insider trading issues and cases in the past. In doing so, we have consistently commended law enforcement efforts to come down hard on the perpetrators of such crimes. However, it is also true that we typically tend, despite the recent problems in the market, to tilt toward the 'hands off' end of the spectrum when it comes to increased regulation. The question could be asked whether these are not incongruous positions to hold. In fact, we believe that they are perfectly compatible. From a posting in late 2009:
The stock market is too often an insider's only club in what should be the most populist of markets. Realistically, cases like this (a hedge fund-related insider trading prosecution) are more than likely just the tip of the iceberg, a fact that prosecutors and regulators should remember before patting themselves too generously on their respective backs. However, it is a start, and could also serve as a model for financial regulation. Instead of putting further systems in place to regulate the financial markets, more cases like this could be just the fix for unfair play, creating a disincentive to cheat, and ultimately an equal playing field for all.
'A Tale of Three Budgets'
For once, we will let a graphic speak for itself...
Tip of the hat to G.M.
Congressional Budget Office Projections for the Recent Major Budget Proposals
Tip of the hat to G.M.
Should President Obama Pay More in Taxes?
Tax day has passed, but that hasn't quite stemmed the flow of tax-related articles droning around the blogosphere. We found one in particular to be of interest, this piece by one of our personal favorites, Gregg Easterbrook. In it he analyses President Obama's tax return and has a little bit of fun with numbers. While the Obamas are very generous on the charity front, and though their average tax rate is higher than most individuals lucky enough to find themselves at the First Couple's income level, Mr. Easterbrook nonetheless concludes that Mr. Obama's money is not quite where his mouth is...
Is the New World Order Upon Us?
Just shy of one month ago we posted a brief note addressing the conservative ire over the then forthcoming 'New Bretton Woods' conference. Ahead of the event, which was held in the middle of this month, many commentators seemed fearful that the George Soros-funded conference was nothing less than the final step in implementing a New World Order in global finance. We had our doubts that the three-day event had such nefarious underpinnings, but we nonetheless concluded the aforementioned post with a promise to follow up on the event. Helpfully, and quite undermining the claims of some bloggers that the event was to be shrouded in secrecy, videos of all of the major sessions have been posted at this page. We will let readers decide for themselves whether the New World Order is indeed upon us, but at least from here everything appears to be business as usual.
4.21.2011
Police Threaten Strike Over Alcohol Ban
Having trouble believing that this headline could possibly be true? What if we told you that the story was out of Paris? That's right, French riot police are threatening to strike after police chiefs decided to end the tradition of Republican Security Company (CRS) officers taking a drink with their main meal of the day.
'Nobody should object to a small drink on jobs,' union official Didier Mangione said. 'CRS officers do not have any more or less alcohol problems than anybody else in society. They should be allowed to drink in moderation. Our right to drink alcohol with our food is protected by the law and our members are very unhappy at being treated like children.' Mr Mangione added.
Indeed. The practice of having a small glass of wine or a beer with a meal was ended after officers were photographed drinking from bottles of beer and wine during recent street protests in the capital city. For more on the story, visit The Telegraph here.
'Nobody should object to a small drink on jobs,' union official Didier Mangione said. 'CRS officers do not have any more or less alcohol problems than anybody else in society. They should be allowed to drink in moderation. Our right to drink alcohol with our food is protected by the law and our members are very unhappy at being treated like children.' Mr Mangione added.
Indeed. The practice of having a small glass of wine or a beer with a meal was ended after officers were photographed drinking from bottles of beer and wine during recent street protests in the capital city. For more on the story, visit The Telegraph here.
Superheroes or Super Wasteful...
If your faith in the capability of government is not already hanging by a frayed thread, try this snippet from a recent Yahoo! article on for size:
Florida officials are investigating an unemployment agency that spent public money to give 6,000 superhero capes to the jobless...Workforce Central Florida spent more than $14,000 on the red capes as part of its "Cape-A-Bility Challenge" public relations campaign. The campaign featured a cartoon character, "Dr. Evil Unemployment," who needs to be vanquished.
It should be noted that WCF is not a government agency per se, but its reckless use of public funds ($4.1 million in American Reinvestment & Recovery Act funds according to its 2010 year end report) should subject the organization to a similar level of scrutiny.
Finally, if you are the type who believes that we are merely being curmudgeonly about this, we are guessing that you are probably also among those who would be inspired by this video.
Florida officials are investigating an unemployment agency that spent public money to give 6,000 superhero capes to the jobless...Workforce Central Florida spent more than $14,000 on the red capes as part of its "Cape-A-Bility Challenge" public relations campaign. The campaign featured a cartoon character, "Dr. Evil Unemployment," who needs to be vanquished.
It should be noted that WCF is not a government agency per se, but its reckless use of public funds ($4.1 million in American Reinvestment & Recovery Act funds according to its 2010 year end report) should subject the organization to a similar level of scrutiny.
Finally, if you are the type who believes that we are merely being curmudgeonly about this, we are guessing that you are probably also among those who would be inspired by this video.
4.20.2011
Snippets: The Sports Edition
Welcome to Snippets, Blawgconomics' semi-regular attempt at covering a lot of topics from the worlds of law, economics and politics in a little time. Some would call this lazy; economists prefer the term 'efficient.' In this edition of Snippets we will be focusing on the business side of sports. We have covered sports stories many times in the past; aside from being a passion of Blawgconomics, the sports world is also one of the great intersections of both the legal and economic worlds.
- We will kick off this edition with a stunning revelation that could explain the subsequently cursed lives of the teams at the center of it. There is apparently some evidence that the fix was on in the 1918 World Series. Though the sporting gods subsequently forgave the Boston Red Sox (albeit after a substantial punishment) Chicago Cub fans may still be suffering for the sins of the 1918 squad. This is clearly a topic that hits close to home on both the legal and economic fronts; an argument could probably be made that its impact on the sanity of Chicagoans and Bostonians gives it a link to the healthcare debate as well.
- We will kick off this edition with a stunning revelation that could explain the subsequently cursed lives of the teams at the center of it. There is apparently some evidence that the fix was on in the 1918 World Series. Though the sporting gods subsequently forgave the Boston Red Sox (albeit after a substantial punishment) Chicago Cub fans may still be suffering for the sins of the 1918 squad. This is clearly a topic that hits close to home on both the legal and economic fronts; an argument could probably be made that its impact on the sanity of Chicagoans and Bostonians gives it a link to the healthcare debate as well.
Taking Sides on the 'Kill Team' Controversy
If the comments following the Rolling Stone article we link to below are any indication, the Afghanistan 'Kill Team' story is one of the most provocative ones of the War on Terror era. Were US soldiers protecting themselves from an enemy who is so often indistinguishable from every other plainly-dressed citizen on the Afghan landscape? Or are the soldiers involved in the controversy just plain monsters who were seeking out innocent victims to murder? As someone who has not been involved in front line combat for one, your author can honestly say that he is finding it difficult to pass judgment either way. Of course the actions were atrocious and reprehensible, but as so many who have served and have commented on the story have pointed out, war is never as pretty, clean or as simple as some would apparently like to think.
One thing is for sure however; this issue has not received nearly as much press as one of the other controversial war-related stories of recent times, the humiliation and abuse of prisoners at Abu Ghraib. We will leave it to readers to make their own assumptions about why this might be, but there does seem to be a disturbing lack of coverage on this important story. Nonetheless, some outlets are discussing the situation. And, as noted previously, folks who are discussing it seem to have much stronger and clearer personal reactions to it than we do. Which leads back to the million dollar question...is this a story about monsters, or is simply the latest piece of evidence on an almost endless list reinforcing the old adage that war is hell? Decide for yourself... if you can. The Rolling Stone article and accompanying comments can be found here.
One thing is for sure however; this issue has not received nearly as much press as one of the other controversial war-related stories of recent times, the humiliation and abuse of prisoners at Abu Ghraib. We will leave it to readers to make their own assumptions about why this might be, but there does seem to be a disturbing lack of coverage on this important story. Nonetheless, some outlets are discussing the situation. And, as noted previously, folks who are discussing it seem to have much stronger and clearer personal reactions to it than we do. Which leads back to the million dollar question...is this a story about monsters, or is simply the latest piece of evidence on an almost endless list reinforcing the old adage that war is hell? Decide for yourself... if you can. The Rolling Stone article and accompanying comments can be found here.
Oil: A Global Report, A Local Impact
March saw spot crude prices jump 10-15% as rising OPEC production was more than offset by political unrest and accompanying supply shortages in other exporting nations such as Libya, Yemen, Oman, Gabon and the Ivory Coast. See more details on the latest developments in the global oil market including charts in the latest International Energy Agency report here.
Though many of the problems impacting oil prices are occurring in North Africa, the resulting jump in crude prices is being reflected closer to home. In particular we have noted that one of today's headlines has trumpeted the emergence of $5 per gallon gasoline in Washington DC.
It might only be scant consolation to our readers, but it appears to this observer that the photo at the link above was taken at a particular station found at the intersection of Virginia Avenue and the Rock Creek Parkway. For those unfamiliar with the lay of the land, this places it on the commuter route of many of our elected representatives traveling to homes in Northwest DC and Maryland from Capitol Hill every evening. Though politicians are frequently accused of being out of touch, maybe this is one time they are feeling the pain of common voters...
If knowing that politicians are paying high prices for gas alone doesn't console the frequent drivers among readers, it should further be noted that the station in question, due to both its proximity to the high-priced Watergate complex and its location on the particular commuter route noted above, has the notorious luxury of charging above market rates. Therefore, here's hoping that the specter of $5 per gallon gas for most people is some ways off yet.
Though many of the problems impacting oil prices are occurring in North Africa, the resulting jump in crude prices is being reflected closer to home. In particular we have noted that one of today's headlines has trumpeted the emergence of $5 per gallon gasoline in Washington DC.
It might only be scant consolation to our readers, but it appears to this observer that the photo at the link above was taken at a particular station found at the intersection of Virginia Avenue and the Rock Creek Parkway. For those unfamiliar with the lay of the land, this places it on the commuter route of many of our elected representatives traveling to homes in Northwest DC and Maryland from Capitol Hill every evening. Though politicians are frequently accused of being out of touch, maybe this is one time they are feeling the pain of common voters...
If knowing that politicians are paying high prices for gas alone doesn't console the frequent drivers among readers, it should further be noted that the station in question, due to both its proximity to the high-priced Watergate complex and its location on the particular commuter route noted above, has the notorious luxury of charging above market rates. Therefore, here's hoping that the specter of $5 per gallon gas for most people is some ways off yet.
Election 2012: The Rise of the Virtual Campaign Trail
The internet was one of the critical pieces of the campaign puzzle for President Obama in 2008. Though it did not by any means assure his victory, it was a vital tool in mobilizing his base, organizing events and soliciting donations, all obviously key components of his overall strategy. Election 2012 is shaping up to take the e-revolution in the world of campaigning much further as both parties look to take advantage of social media and videos in addition to the already ubiquitous websites that populate the political landscape.
Already Mr. Obama has announced his re-election campaign via video earlier this month. He continues upon the virtual campaign trail with a Facebook Live event later today moderated by the website's founder Mark Zuckerberg. President Obama is not alone however. As Matt Lira, digital advisor for the McCain 2008 campaign has noted, 'You learn more from losing than winning sometimes.' As such, Republican hopefuls such as Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Tim Pawlenty and Mitt Romney have utilized everything from Facebook to videos to Twitter to social gaming based on Farmville as part of their respective ramp-up strategies. For more on what we are calling the virtual campaign trail, visit Jennifer Preston's excellent New York Times piece here (this article is also the source of the Matt Lira quote above).
Already Mr. Obama has announced his re-election campaign via video earlier this month. He continues upon the virtual campaign trail with a Facebook Live event later today moderated by the website's founder Mark Zuckerberg. President Obama is not alone however. As Matt Lira, digital advisor for the McCain 2008 campaign has noted, 'You learn more from losing than winning sometimes.' As such, Republican hopefuls such as Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Tim Pawlenty and Mitt Romney have utilized everything from Facebook to videos to Twitter to social gaming based on Farmville as part of their respective ramp-up strategies. For more on what we are calling the virtual campaign trail, visit Jennifer Preston's excellent New York Times piece here (this article is also the source of the Matt Lira quote above).
4.19.2011
What's New on Blawgconomics
At Blawgconomics, we are known to be creatures of habit. Sometimes we are even called 'stodgy,' 'boring' and 'bland' due to our conservative, neutral color scheme, our aversion to change, a use of old-timey fonts and a fear of integrating video into the site that lingered well over a year into its existence. After all, we thought, you might not be able to get a little pregnant, but people remain free to embrace 'the internet age' small bits at a time. However, as of last night all of that changed. Slightly.
Regular readers will note the minor format changes to the site, including a more modern font and a tweak to the size of the text. Unfortunately (in the minds of some at least), however, the neutral color scheme is here to stay. Among other differences is a streamlining of the menu bar to the left of the page; the news and resources remain but the some of the less utilized bits have been taken down. Among these subtractions includes the 'search' tool, which has instead been integrated into the tool bar at the top of the page.
Regular readers will note the minor format changes to the site, including a more modern font and a tweak to the size of the text. Unfortunately (in the minds of some at least), however, the neutral color scheme is here to stay. Among other differences is a streamlining of the menu bar to the left of the page; the news and resources remain but the some of the less utilized bits have been taken down. Among these subtractions includes the 'search' tool, which has instead been integrated into the tool bar at the top of the page.
4.18.2011
Fun Facts For Tax Day
As the final ticks of the 2010 tax season draw near, we would like to draw our readers' attention to a short Yahoo! article on the state of the tax system in the US which includes a few 'fun' facts. Among others, it appears that nearly half of US households do not pay taxes at all, while there are apparently about $8,000 worth of tax credits per taxpayer written into the tax code. Such facts have not escaped observers on either side of the aisle, as it is very clear that a high amount of potential annual revenues are being lost to the myriad loopholes of the system.
Though this isn't a big (or at least not a widely discussed) problem when the wheels of the economy are properly greased, it becomes far more noticeable when federal revenues are struggling to keep up with the national debt burden, nevermind government expenditures. This isn't to say that there is an easy solution; indeed various segments of the political spectrum advocate as solutions everything from higher taxes to lower taxes to mere elimination of loopholes to national sales taxes and everything together and in between. However, despite well-reasoned disagreement on solutions, it is nonetheless becomingly increasingly clear that the status quo is at least one source of many of the nation's problems.
For more interesting tidbits on a system which (probably justifyingly) seems to face harsher scrutiny with each passing day, visit the Yahoo! article here.
Though this isn't a big (or at least not a widely discussed) problem when the wheels of the economy are properly greased, it becomes far more noticeable when federal revenues are struggling to keep up with the national debt burden, nevermind government expenditures. This isn't to say that there is an easy solution; indeed various segments of the political spectrum advocate as solutions everything from higher taxes to lower taxes to mere elimination of loopholes to national sales taxes and everything together and in between. However, despite well-reasoned disagreement on solutions, it is nonetheless becomingly increasingly clear that the status quo is at least one source of many of the nation's problems.
For more interesting tidbits on a system which (probably justifyingly) seems to face harsher scrutiny with each passing day, visit the Yahoo! article here.
Op-Ed: The Budget Battle: A Middle Way?
With all of the talk of government shutdowns ringing in the air, and with YouTube having seemingly become the battleground of choice for the voices of the respective parties, it has been easy to forget that nearly all of the issues underpinning the current budgetary battle have already been discussed and considered by both sides very congenially and very recently. Indeed, the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform should have laid the groundwork for Mr. Obama, allowing him to take the initiative on long-term budget issues months ago rather than letting the Republicans under Paul Ryan take the reigns. However, the work of the Commission, until recently, has been largely pushed to the back burner.
According to its website,
According to its website,
'President Obama created the bipartisan National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform to address our nation's fiscal challenges. The Commission is charged with identifying policies to improve the fiscal situation in the medium term and to achieve fiscal sustainability over the long run. Specifically, the Commission shall propose recommendations designed to balance the budget, excluding interest payments on the debt, by 2015. In addition, the Commission shall propose recommendations that meaningfully improve the long-run fiscal outlook, including changes to address the growth of entitlement spending and the gap between the projected revenues and expenditures of the Federal Government.'
As the leadership of the country moves forward, attempting to wade through the politically muddy waters of various competing budget plans, it will be beneficial to all if some of the recommendations of this bi-partisan committee were recollected by both sides. Not only were competing sides of the aisle represented, but both houses of Congress, the business community and labor as well. Though the Commission's suggestions were brushed aside by the Obama administration before, they clearly guided his second effort at a 2012 budget. This is well, because it clearly provides some middle ground both parties can stand on.
4.14.2011
Obama's Budget Response
As previously promised, we are returning to long-term budget matters today. After Republicans took the initiative on government spending, President Obama came through with a strongly political response which should allow him to reframe the debate. The President's speech can be viewed here:
China Posts Quarterly Trade Deficit
US officials have pointed to China's trade surpluses over the past few years in bolstering arguments for allowing yuan appreciation. However, in the first three months of 2011, China posted a quarterly trade deficit for the first time in seven years, pointing to signs of imported inflation and potentially alleviating outside pressures to revaluate, at least for the time being.
Most analysts point to the incredible growth in the Chinese economy as the reason for the deficit; the commodity-hungry development cycle that the country is going through has left it vulnerable to the type of resource price rises that have been occurring recently. Additionally, export growth has slowed as the global economy continues its recovery phase, magnifying the impact of hotly-priced commodities being imported.
This is an interesting development on the foreign affairs front as revaluation has been a area of contention between the worlds current and rising superpowers. Not only does the US have less of a leg to stand when it prods Beijing to allow the yuan to rise, Chinese officials may allow for some natural currency appreciation to combat the impact of importing largely dollar-denominated goods being paid for with its unnaturally weak currency.
Tip of the hat to S.W.
Most analysts point to the incredible growth in the Chinese economy as the reason for the deficit; the commodity-hungry development cycle that the country is going through has left it vulnerable to the type of resource price rises that have been occurring recently. Additionally, export growth has slowed as the global economy continues its recovery phase, magnifying the impact of hotly-priced commodities being imported.
This is an interesting development on the foreign affairs front as revaluation has been a area of contention between the worlds current and rising superpowers. Not only does the US have less of a leg to stand when it prods Beijing to allow the yuan to rise, Chinese officials may allow for some natural currency appreciation to combat the impact of importing largely dollar-denominated goods being paid for with its unnaturally weak currency.
Tip of the hat to S.W.
4.11.2011
Is Black the New White?
In the wake of the recent nuclear disaster in Japan, Jeff Sommer of The New York Times wrote an article discussing black swan events and the difficulties they provide in analyzing financial markets. Black swan events, so named because of the rarity of the cygnus atratus of that coloration, can be described as follows*:
2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities
1. The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard to predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology
2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities
3. The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs
4.10.2011
A Path to Prosperity?
Now that the nation's short-term budget problems have been 'solved,' Washington is moving on to the longer-term picture. The Republican's vision for the long-term budget, or the 'Ryan Budget' (after main author Paul Ryan of Wisconsin) has been dubbed by its authors as 'The Path to Prosperity.' So is it? Decide for yourselves...the Ryan Budget can be found here. Meanwhile a short film featuring Mr. Ryan explaining his vision can be found here:
UPDATE: Stand by for Democratic response to this plan; President Obama plans to address the nation Wednesday from a yet-to-be disclosed university in the District with alternatives.
UPDATE: Stand by for Democratic response to this plan; President Obama plans to address the nation Wednesday from a yet-to-be disclosed university in the District with alternatives.
4.09.2011
Deal Signed, Disaster Averted
A good friend with less of a feel for the pulse of Washington than any politician but a good deal more common sense than most of them commented to me earlier this week 'They are going to shut down the federal government? What a stupid idea.' A statement both simple and concise, it echoed the thoughts of many Americans. Fortunately, the sentiments her comment suggested were finally appreciated by those in charge of such things as an eleventh hour deal was struck on the budget last night.
While it reamains to be seen if all of the politicking was worth it, the budget will, if nothing else, provide a political talking point for those with presidential aspirations. Clearly, the historic $38 billion in cuts will serve as a referendum on poli-economic idealogies; if they work, the eventual Republican nominee can hope to have a leg up in 2012. If not, President Obama's currently dismal approval ratings could still be too high a mountain to climb for a representative of the 'cuts' party.
While it reamains to be seen if all of the politicking was worth it, the budget will, if nothing else, provide a political talking point for those with presidential aspirations. Clearly, the historic $38 billion in cuts will serve as a referendum on poli-economic idealogies; if they work, the eventual Republican nominee can hope to have a leg up in 2012. If not, President Obama's currently dismal approval ratings could still be too high a mountain to climb for a representative of the 'cuts' party.
Madoff on Madoff...
Bernie Madoff has not been a particularly talkative man the past few years. However, he has spoken about his involvement in the biggest fraud in history with the Financial Times at least once before. Recently, and from prison, he chose to do so again. A fascinating read, it is a portrait of one of America's most hated men, an individual taking some measure of blame for his actions while sounding far from rehabilitated in the process. Even now, after a trial, the tears, the death of one of his two sons, Madoff still has the chutzpah to shift blame around. Meanwhile, for anyone interested in the story behind the story, the FT's Gillian Tett and David Gelles discuss the interview in a video here.
4.05.2011
Will Hillary Run?
President Obama recently announced his intent to seek re-election. Typically such a declaration from a sitting president would get the party campaign machine rolling with its lazer focus directed at scouting out those on the list of potential opponents from the party opposite. However, if Andrew Malcolm at the LA Times is correct, Obama might have a fight on his hands before the general election can even be contemplated. For some thoughts on how many factors, including low approval ratings, have perhaps opened the door for Hillary Clinton to make a run in 2012, visit here.
4.04.2011
Shining a Light on Fed Operations
After a 2-plus year court battle, the Fed was recently forced to produce documents relating to its lending activities during the peak of the financial crisis. The bank had argued that releasing information regarding which banks had borrowed how much and when could open them up to speculators and cause unnecessary strains on the banking system. Meanwhile, news organizations such as Fox Business and Bloomberg argued that it was in the public interest for the documents to be made available.
Despite some nearly breathless exclamations in the media that foreign banks had tapped the lender, it is common practice for foreign banks with US operations to do so. However, even if the foreign lending is not all that newsworthy, there is still something to be gained from viewing the documents; some of the dollar figures are breathtaking no matter where in the world they ended up. For a glimpse into the operations of the Fed, open the documents found here. In advance, it is worth noting that there are multiple documents at that location and download times might be on the long side.
Despite some nearly breathless exclamations in the media that foreign banks had tapped the lender, it is common practice for foreign banks with US operations to do so. However, even if the foreign lending is not all that newsworthy, there is still something to be gained from viewing the documents; some of the dollar figures are breathtaking no matter where in the world they ended up. For a glimpse into the operations of the Fed, open the documents found here. In advance, it is worth noting that there are multiple documents at that location and download times might be on the long side.
Tribal Law Re-emerging in Iraq...For Better or Worse
The Washington Post had an interesting article over the weekend on the tribal law system in Iraq. Without the benefit of first-hand knowledge, it sounds as if the tribal system has a lot in common with some of the methods of the alternative dispute resolution movement in the US. Essentially, when someone is wronged (the examples provided in the article suggest that the issues that arise are roughly comparable to what might come up in a tort case in the US), s/he gets a sheik, a respected member of the local tribe, to represent him in talks with the other party. The other party is, in turn, typically represented by its own sheik. After negotiations (called fasels) are finalized, the injured party receives compensation and has economic obligations to the sheik. The fasel system was heavily in use prior to 1958 at which point tribal law was banished. The stifling of the tribal law system was continued under the Hussein regime.
However, after Hussein was deposed, the restrictions on tribal law no longer existed. Under this backdrop, and with the legal system in Iraq taking time to catch up to the new freedoms enjoyed by its citizens, the fasel has made a comeback which has helped to fill voids where the state-sponsored system has come up lacking. Though this has provided benefits to citizens hopeful of quick recovery after being harmed, the return to tribal law has not been without problems. For example, the article notes that many of today's sheiks are no better than 'bullies' who can attribute their rising collective status to the US occupation during which many were paid to fight insurgents.
However, after Hussein was deposed, the restrictions on tribal law no longer existed. Under this backdrop, and with the legal system in Iraq taking time to catch up to the new freedoms enjoyed by its citizens, the fasel has made a comeback which has helped to fill voids where the state-sponsored system has come up lacking. Though this has provided benefits to citizens hopeful of quick recovery after being harmed, the return to tribal law has not been without problems. For example, the article notes that many of today's sheiks are no better than 'bullies' who can attribute their rising collective status to the US occupation during which many were paid to fight insurgents.
The Price of Convenience
The internet age has changed the way people live their lives. On empirical evidence, it would seem that this change has been, on balance, for the better. It is easier to stay in touch with old friends and colleagues. The costs of business have lessened through connectivity and more mundane things such as increased efficiencies in record-keeping. Knowledge which may have been inaccessible to the masses in times past is now readily available in a matter of keystrokes. However, though the scales may tip toward the favorability of the internet age, this doesn't mean that there aren't counterweights. For more on one of the biggest costs countering the many benefits of the E-World, readers can read up on what is merely the latest of the many large-scale data breaches which have graced the headlines in recent times here.
Self-Professed September 11th Mastermind to be Tried at Guantanamo Bay
According to Reuters, and contrary to the original plans of the Obama Administration, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed will be tried at the Guantanamo Bay Facility. Mohammed has confessed to his role in planning 9/11. The President had wanted the trial to occur in civilian courts, specifically in New York. However a vocal opposition objected to this plan for a number of reasons ranging from the potential for an increased risk of repeat attacks to arguments that Mohammed is not a civilian at all but rather a war criminal.
Though the story is newsworthy in itself, it is also a sign of bigger problems for the Obama administration as it is an implicit acknowledgement that Guantanamo Bay is not closing for the forseeable future. This is a clear reversal from Obama's campaign promise to have the base closed by the end of his first year in office. According to Reuters, an anonymous U.S. official commented that the administration 'had no choice but to pursue military commission trials after Congress in December adopted restrictions on prosecuting Guantanamo prisoners in civilian courts.'
Though the story is newsworthy in itself, it is also a sign of bigger problems for the Obama administration as it is an implicit acknowledgement that Guantanamo Bay is not closing for the forseeable future. This is a clear reversal from Obama's campaign promise to have the base closed by the end of his first year in office. According to Reuters, an anonymous U.S. official commented that the administration 'had no choice but to pursue military commission trials after Congress in December adopted restrictions on prosecuting Guantanamo prisoners in civilian courts.'
PSA: Death and Taxes
Hopefully the first subject in the title of this post doesn't factor heavily into any of our readers' immediate futures. Unfortunately for some among our readers (and with as equal a degree of certainty) however, the second is right around the corner. Fortunately, it is not perhaps quite as close around the corner as some might think. This is because although April 15th sticks out in the collective conscience as 'tax day', the IRS deadline for filing for tax year 2010 has been pushed out to April 18th.
Procrastinators apparently have President Lincoln to thank for this development, as his edict freeing 3,100 slaves in the District of Columbia in 1862 has been commemorated as the local Emancipation Day holiday. As the 16th (the anniversary of Lincoln's order and thus the date of the annual holiday) falls on a Saturday this year, it will be observed (likely with extra verve this year) on Friday the 15th. This extension is not insignificant; according to the IRS, up to 25% of taxpayers wait until the final two weeks of tax season to file in a typical year.
Procrastinators apparently have President Lincoln to thank for this development, as his edict freeing 3,100 slaves in the District of Columbia in 1862 has been commemorated as the local Emancipation Day holiday. As the 16th (the anniversary of Lincoln's order and thus the date of the annual holiday) falls on a Saturday this year, it will be observed (likely with extra verve this year) on Friday the 15th. This extension is not insignificant; according to the IRS, up to 25% of taxpayers wait until the final two weeks of tax season to file in a typical year.
4.01.2011
Getting to Know America, Cable Style
Regular readers are likely to be aware of the fact that we like to take shots at the state of American media as often as possible. It is nearly impossible in a world of ratings-driven primetime partisan rants to get anything like real news on the television. The internet can be as bad, if not worse with comments sections of most any news story devolving into shouting matches fuelled by the anonymity of doltish screen names and optimistic avatars. Add in the barely-afloat newspaper industry with its hyper-concentration in ownership, and therefore viewpoints, and people can be forgiven for wondering if any given story across the various media is news or merely just thinly-veiled propaganda.
That is the main reason we champion C-SPAN as often as possible. Sure, politics features heavily on C-SPAN; indeed almost all of C-SPAN's programming is political by nature to some extent. However it is politics unfiltered and straight from the horse's mouths. Viewers don't get the so-often out of context soundbite, they get the whole speech. They don't hear the one zinger thrown across the aisle, they hear the whole debate. They get to see committee hearings, campaign stops and meetings without an editing suite acting as an intermediary. On top of all of the other benefits, the C-SPAN family additionally offers some excellent coverage of foreign politics. It is truly the best way for interested parties to get to know the issues and make their own decisions on where they stand.
That is the main reason we champion C-SPAN as often as possible. Sure, politics features heavily on C-SPAN; indeed almost all of C-SPAN's programming is political by nature to some extent. However it is politics unfiltered and straight from the horse's mouths. Viewers don't get the so-often out of context soundbite, they get the whole speech. They don't hear the one zinger thrown across the aisle, they hear the whole debate. They get to see committee hearings, campaign stops and meetings without an editing suite acting as an intermediary. On top of all of the other benefits, the C-SPAN family additionally offers some excellent coverage of foreign politics. It is truly the best way for interested parties to get to know the issues and make their own decisions on where they stand.
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